The US’s Baltic and Adriatic Charters could become templates for embedding Ukraine and Georgia as well as, perhaps, Moldova and Azerbaijan into a provisional multilateral security structure. By Iryna Vereshchuk and Andreas Umland It is remarkable how strongly some international organizations’ coverage of the East-Central European and South Caucasian post-Soviet space has come to […]
Co-written with Kostiantyn Fedorenko After the break-up of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, a geopolitical gray zone emerged between Western organizations on the one side, and the Russia-dominated space on the other. This model was always fragile, did not help to solve the Transnistria problem in eastern Moldova or the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in […]
The current crisis in Ukraine is a game changer for Europe. While it has reignited a necessary public debate about collective measures to ensure Europe’s security, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) immediate neighborhood has witnessed a considerable worsening of security conditions for some time.
Which group of countries can be set as an example in the security and defense field for the Central European states? It is my contention that the Nordic collaboration, based on the 2009 “Stoltenberg report,” should be and could be repeated on a V4 level. How V4 cooperation might become as effective and attractive to the U.S. as the one between the Nordic states? One should offer a set of four rules which will be called V4 four commandments: visibility, flexible leadership, active engagement and daring thinking.
The results of the March 2012 presidential election in Russia were no surprise for Central European observers. Vladimir Putin, the new-old President, has returned to power and the political, social and economic atmosphere has again become tense and unpredictable. Yet the change might not be as radical as many fear. In the last few years shifts in Russian foreign policy have not been strategic, but merely tactical. During Dmitry Medvedev’s Presidency, Moscow attempted to create an atmosphere conducive to cooperation with Europe and was eager to pursue broader modernization. However, the ongoing economic crisis has revealed that Russia lacks the potential to implement any ambitious programs on the international stage. And now, Vladimir Putin will have to decide how to forge policy statements from his election campaign into real and concrete political actions. From a Central European perspective, three crucial questions have emerged following the election. First, how will Putin’s return influence Russia’s relationship with the EU? Second, what impact will that have on the potential future political and security scenarios in Europe’s Eastern neighborhood? And finally, what would a more assertive Russia mean both for the broader Central European security landscape at a time of relative U.S. retrenchment from the region, and for the prospects for sustainability and longevity of the rapprochement efforts between Moscow and several regional capitals, notably Warsaw?
Space has become an increasingly important domain within regional security cooperation initiatives. While the Nordic countries have embraced the prospect of a joint satellite system as an important tool in advancing common interests, the Visegrad nations have yet to recognize the immense potential of collaboration in outer space. Central European leaders presently face a challenge of focusing too much on the challenges and risks associated with the declining defense budgets, while overlooking the opportunities that might offer unique investments with long-lasting benefits.
As the geopolitics and technology of natural gas continue to change rapidly—with such developments as shale gas production and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) transport—the European community would do well to consider the strategic value of supply diversification. Crises in 2006 and 2009, both the result of intentional supply decreases from Russia, highlight the risks of overdependence on any one source for this vital commodity. But overreliance on Russia is not the only possible source of distress for the European market: from environmental concerns to instability in other potential supplier nations, every natural gas supply comes with its own set of challenges and risks. For this reason, an “all sources” strategy for natural gas production (one that spreads the risk and minimizes the impact of a reduction in any one source of supply) should characterize the European approach in years to come.
NATO summits have always been exceptional events. In fact, some of the most recent ones went down in history for both positive and negative reasons. The one to be held in Chicago will be no exception, especially as it will be the first NATO summit in the United States in 13 years. Central Europe, with the Baltic States included, is one of those regions in the transatlantic sphere that in particular awaits summit’s outcome. Indeed, being a hingepoint on the Euro-Atlantic fringe – with deep uncertainties about America’s long-term regional commitment in the face of politically unpredictable or military muscular neighbors – makes you long for clear declarations. Will the NATO summit in Chicago bring any security affirmations to the Central European states?