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Warning signs of instability in Egypt

Warning signs of instability in Egypt

The latest data from our Risk Pulse collaboration show significant increases in potential instability and unrest in Egypt. Joseph Colonna explains how conditions are ripe for another wave of protest, with presidential elections due on 26-28 March. It’s not uncommon to hear Egyptians saying that the revolution failed – that it ...

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Venezuela crisis spills over into Colombia

Venezuela crisis spills over into Colombia

Today Colombia is faced with one of the biggest migration crises in the world. As Venezuela continues to plummet to the depths of depression, roughly 35,000 Venezuelans cross the Colombian border daily in pursuit of survival. Fifteen months into the controversial peace treaty which ended 52 years of civil ...

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Saudi Arabia and the UAE Heat Up Their Arms Race with Iran

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Heat Up Their Arms Race with Iran

While the world’s attention remains focused on the nuclear brinkmanship and missile launches on the Korean peninsula, the Middle Eastern arms race, pitting Saudi Arabia and its ally the United Arab Emirates against Iran has been slowly heating up and could soon reach a boiling point. The spending boom among ...

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Exclusive Interview: Alfa Bank’s Chief Economist on the outlook for Russia

Exclusive Interview: Alfa Bank’s Chief Economist on the outlook for Russia

The Russian economy returned to growth in 2017 after several years of recession. However, there are still major challenges ahead, including the need for budget reform, a financial sector overhaul, and the risk of sanctions. Natalia Orlova, Chief Economist and Head of Macro Insights at Alfa Bank, offers her expert ...

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Abadi verses Barzani: Who is the true hero?    

Abadi verses Barzani: Who is the true hero?    

  Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi has been hailed in many western circles as the unifier of Iraq but in reality, he is merely another sectarian leader, who murders and threatens his own people in order to hold a failed state together utilizing brute force.  To the contrary, Kurdistan’s ...

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Why Putin Likes the West

Why Putin Likes the West

Allow me to make two observations before I turn to my remarks. The Mission statement of the Forum’s website asks that we be honest and direct.  And so, although I do not wish to appear overly harsh in my observations, nevertheless I am obliged to be frank and open.  ...

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North Korea, Iran, and the Nuclear Posture Review

North Korea, Iran, and the Nuclear Posture Review

Recently, the Trump Administration decided against nominating Victor D. Cha as Ambassador to South Korea due to his opposition to the “bloody nose” strategy against North Korea advocated by the White House. On the heels of this report, U.S. disarmament ambassador Robert Wood declared that North Korea ...

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The importance of the FARC’s 2018 political campaign

The importance of the FARC’s 2018 political campaign

On January 27, Rodrigo Londoño began his campaign for president of Colombia. Will this move help the FARC achieve greater acceptance and further the peace process, despite the unlikelihood of a political victory? Rodrigo Londoño is the leader of the FARC, which, in September 2017 became a political party in ...

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Under the Radar: Ethiopia’s economic growth offers opportunities and challenges

Under the Radar: Ethiopia’s economic growth offers opportunities and challenges

Not many may know that Ethiopia was among the first countries to join the International Monetary Fund (IMF) when the latter was formed on 27 December 1945.  Nevertheless, it took another 72 years for Ethiopia to welcome its first visit from the IMF Managing Director, in this case, Christine Lagarde who ...

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India looks east, but is it ready to act?

India looks east, but is it ready to act?

As Narendra Modi welcomes ASEAN leaders, can he balance non-interventionism with his desire for Indian strategic partnerships with ASEAN? India can still present itself as a credible counterweight to China, but not without embracing international norms of accountability. Looking east The 26 January marked India’s 69th Republic Day. New Delhi welcomed all ...

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The Week Ahead: 28 January-3 February 2018

The Week Ahead: 28 January-3 February 2018

Trump’s State of the Union. Turkey intensifies operations in Syria. Merkel mends her coalition. All this in The Week Ahead. UNITED STATES: Trump’s State of the Union: President Trump will present his State of the Union Address to Congress this Tuesday, following a rough week that included a government shutdown, controversy ...

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Price-fixing can only worsen the crisis in Venezuela

Price-fixing can only worsen the crisis in Venezuela

Venezuela is closer than ever to a full-blown humanitarian crisis, with its population being unable to satisfy dietary requirements amidst a climate of hyperinflation and collapse of national productivity. The government, instead of formulating a clear exit strategy, is forcing supermarkets and consumer goods manufacturers to cut prices at ...

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No end in sight for conflict in Eastern Ukraine

No end in sight for conflict in Eastern Ukraine

The last year has seen a period of deadlock in Eastern Ukraine. As the armed conflict continues into 2018 amid fruitless attempts to reach a stable ceasefire, should we expect a flare-up in the Donbass region? Permanent ceasefire remains beyond reach The progress on Minsk II – the key agreement that ...

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The evolving terrorist threat to China’s Central Asia projects

The evolving terrorist threat to China’s Central Asia projects

With its infrastructure projects and business investments, China’s Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) initiative has the potential to transform Central Asia. But Chinese plans will face rising terrorism and extremism risks in the region. In order to address these security concerns, China will have to work closely with Central ...

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Swarm drone attack in Syria points to new kind of warfare

Swarm drone attack in Syria points to new kind of warfare

On 5 January, 2018, Russian forces stationed in Syria suffered what appears to be the first case of swarm drones attack in history. Despite the UAVs being of a rather crude nature, this episode constitutes a further development in non-state actors’ use of UAVs. Additionally, allegations about the involvement ...

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