I wrote a thumbnail sketch the other day of where we are in the US on domestic climate change and energy legislation. Let’s now take a quick look at how things are shaping up only 37 days before Copenhagen.
As you know, the world has been building toward the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP 15) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for several years. COP 13, in Bali two years ago, created the “roadmap” for further talks under the UN’s aegis. In Bali, for one thing, avoiding deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) was embraced as a necessary mechanism for an international agreement after the Kyoto Protocols expire in 2012. For another thing, the idea that adaptation, with an adaptation funding mechanism, needed to be a key building block in “a strengthened future response to climate change” was established.
Copenhagen is where the international community is going to create the framework for how we proceed. We will have a more vigorous regime than Kyoto provided. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol, it should be recognized, was never meant to be the alpha and omega for addressing the climate crisis. It should be celebrated, nevertheless, for the mechanisms that it established.
What we will have after Copenhagen is somewhat well defined in some areas, and as-yet unclear in others. The big bones of contention remain to what extent the developing nations will adhere to a quantifiable program of greenhouse gas reductions, how much and in what way the developed countries will pay for mitigation and adaptation efforts in the developing world, and the new and improved mechanisms for achieving the climate-cooling ends nations agree are necessary.
What’s been going on as part of the preparations for COP 15? The Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate (MEF), for one thing, has been having a series of meetings all year. The MEF nations’ leaders met in Italy in July and made several declarations, among them that “Developing countries among us will promptly undertake actions whose projected effects on emissions represent a meaningful deviation from business as usual in the mid-term …” (My emphases.) Developing nations represent a large burden of the GHG emissions now and there is plenty more ahead before any “meaningful deviations” start to kick in. (China, Indonesia and Brazil are 1, 3 and 4 when you count Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry [LULUCF].) These major developing economies, and others such as India, South Africa, and Mexico, all have a critical voice and a critical role to play in effecting a good agreement in Copenhagen.
Meeting just before the MEF, the G-8 called for a 50% reduction overall in greenhouse gases by 2050, the most advanced economies reducing by 80%. In mid-September, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon organized the Summit on Climate Change. A number of world leaders further delineated their intention to address climate change, in Copenhagen and beyond. The G-20 Summit in Pittsburgh later that week produced a declaration of intent to end fossil-fuel subsidies worldwide, a not-inconsiderable outcome.
Many world leaders, environment and finance ministries, key NGOs, and business leaders have been meeting, talking, negotiating, and building to the critical COP 15 in December. The President of COP 15, Danish Environment Minister Connie Hedgard, has been working hard and long, saying that failure is not an option. Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen has been engaging some key leaders for extra service in helping to make a deal happen. Meanwhile, various working groups of the UNFCCC have been plowing ahead, helping to create optimal conditions for the meetings. The final preparatory meeting before Copenhagen takes place next week in Barcelona.
Just today, after a key EU Summit concluded, José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission announced: “We have a clear, ambitious, and unified EU message on climate finance. We can take this message to Washington, New Delhi, Beijing and elsewhere. Next Tuesday, Prime Minister Reinfeldt and myself are meeting the President of the United States and we will say ‘we are ready to engage, let’s make Copenhagen a success.'” John Fredrik Reinfeldt is the Prime Minister of Sweden. (See also this video from Reuters on the EU agreement.)
The SG had an op-ed this past week in the “NY Times” in which he says that a good deal can come out of Copenhagen. He’s certainly been working hard to effect precisely that outcome.
Another of the central players in all of this is Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC. In the latest monthly newsletter from them, he delivers an urgent, but I think positive message. He talks about the successes in the Bangkok talks earlier this month. He mentions the thousands of NGOs and faith groups that are working toward achieving success on climate and sustainability. He calls on world leaders to follow through on the commitments they’ve been making to finalize a strong, smart and thorough agreement in Copenhagen.
