In a worst-case scenario, political-technological trickery could, after the first round of Ukraine’s upcoming presidential elections, unsettle social stability in Ukraine. Cynical puppet masters are prepared to risk the outbreak of a major domestic civil conflict for the sake of securing re-election of Ukraine’s incumbent president. The relatively pluralistic political competition that emerged after the […]
So often the news, and commentary on it, focuses on when things go wrong. Things going wrong usually involve drama and confrontation, which makes for interesting stories. I am have been guilty of contributing to this trend myself in commenting on when democracy goes wrong, i.e., election fraud and impeachments. But recently I was reminded […]
The patriotic displays this weekend in Havana (military marching through the streets, fighter jets flying over, Cubans participating in parades and celebrations) marked the 50th anniversary of the Cuban victory at the Bay of Pigs—or as Cubans call it, Playa Girón—in 1961. The Bay of Pigs invasion is, of course, the infamous failed attempt by […]
Cuba watchers and analysts pick apart every move, every statement in Washington or Havana that might be a political / economic / diplomatic bellwether and yet on a daily basis, particularly lately, we find ourselves stymied in the art of predicting the “what next.” Fidel emerges unexpectedly for a string of appearances after years out […]
The July/August issue of Foreign Policy includes a piece by George B.N. Ayittey that lists what he designates are the world’s worst dictators. The media is jumping all over his unapologetic account. Kim Jong Il places at number one in these “top 23,” and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Iran) is at number eight, but Raúl Castro is given a spot […]
In recent posts we’ve discussed the future of Communist Cuba after the current generation of leaders is gone, and what might be expected of the next generation. These questions are on the top of the minds of current leadership, and so this weekend’s conference of the Union of Communist Youth fit smoothly into that context: […]
Supporters and opponents alike frequently look to the Cuban regime with the same impression: the current political cadre is aging without indicating a clear method of succession. The average age of Raúl Castro’s cabinet is over 70. Fidel Castro is 83, and Raúl is 78. The general sense that the regime might successfully pull off a […]